A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
